Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-27 101755.282430 107205.338191 112647.881997 118487.155488 124571.016099 130719.208953 137398.324835
2025-08-03 92292.031036 100602.683346 109127.662799 118515.243811 128551.378180 138948.188510 150521.621247
2025-08-10 85741.426186 96023.503839 106796.663451 118903.633643 132107.533059 146047.939078 161855.539157
2025-08-17 80463.255491 92194.208466 104706.430525 119008.228657 134864.915322 151868.611760 171442.136003
2025-08-24 76962.496974 89946.478890 104009.895368 120320.110005 138658.956736 158584.794631 181813.952497
2025-08-31 73091.090880 86994.683053 102268.387368 120218.706357 140659.910216 163134.973198 189634.639645
2025-09-07 70743.183634 85588.812942 102104.552667 121744.621382 144362.746984 169491.893925 199416.152699
2025-09-14 68368.236149 83998.512760 101594.306789 122750.102848 147369.280925 174986.373474 208174.744906
2025-09-21 65733.174739 81965.476767 100447.693291 122903.651117 149296.028624 179173.114975 215387.206539
2025-09-28 63354.151724 80119.618579 99415.701123 123093.997816 151183.416464 183253.911447 222439.406450
2025-10-05 62137.315099 79592.108221 99878.533378 124995.489617 155041.815981 189609.191373 232148.274486
2025-10-12 60829.633915 78886.915557 100072.090484 126527.998098 158430.467347 195401.282554 241208.155085
2025-10-19 59221.180386 77773.565448 99748.568737 127430.024418 161080.565364 200362.914822 249365.616452
2025-10-26 57321.588476 76234.073637 98850.569220 127587.325968 162801.172986 204206.145707 256203.655511
2025-11-02 55684.815215 74961.056962 98224.792890 128029.102240 164830.318244 208399.129833 263461.812503
2025-11-09 53988.656899 73552.180745 97376.444533 128146.921488 166424.703981 212044.709805 270055.314668
2025-11-16 53006.354389 73012.521677 97578.192782 129541.884514 169574.310228 217575.297561 278954.517852
2025-11-23 51375.772153 71584.995536 96615.075925 129434.539879 170828.359341 220773.207661 285005.701681
2025-11-30 50625.351919 71269.807945 97036.951088 131055.190131 174229.317785 226611.637098 294321.334371
2025-12-07 49668.336696 70649.947308 97041.235258 132122.939042 176924.227311 231580.835002 302586.356333
2025-12-14 48361.643980 69527.608717 96363.019669 132285.989242 178453.322322 235092.883902 309050.976487
2025-12-21 47133.332691 68472.533597 95738.513007 132488.107544 180009.671701 238628.117929 315548.900574
2025-12-28 46727.780289 68505.713292 96521.543172 134506.996129 183889.996564 245091.601500 325745.241169